Progress, Prejudice, and the Polarized Electorate of 2024
What Voters Really Think About Race and Politics
As we approach the 2024 election, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: voters are deeply divided on the role that race plays in Kamala Harris's candidacy. Our polling data, collected between August 20 and 27, 2024, from 2,631 respondents nationwide, reveals stark differences in how voters perceive the intersection of race, gender, and politics in this historic election.
Voter perceptions on the role of race in Kamala Harris's candidacy are complex and deeply divided along racial and political lines. While the public largely agrees that race influences how Harris is treated, the degree and nature of this perception differ based on voters' backgrounds.
Media Coverage Seen as Biased: A significant 58% of respondents believe that media coverage of Kamala Harris is influenced by racial bias. This view is most pronounced among AAPI voters (68%) and Black voters (55%), but even 59% of white respondents agree. Party-wise, 66% of Republicans, 52% of Democrats, and 53% of independents also see racial bias in her media portrayal.
Public Support and Opposition: Over half of the voters (55%) believe that public support for Harris is influenced by her race, with Black (55%) and AAPI voters (67%) especially likely to feel this way. When it comes to opposition, 51% of respondents believe it too is influenced by race, with 57% of Black voters and 59% of AAPI voters agreeing. Among Democrats, a strong 70% see opposition to Harris as racially motivated, compared to just 30% of Republicans and 45% of independents.
Impact of Race on Career: A little over half of respondents (54%) believe that Harris’s race has impacted her political career. AAPI voters (62%) and Black voters (55%) are the most likely to hold this view. Among Republicans, 63% believe her race has been a factor in her career trajectory, compared to 47% of Democrats and 53% of independents.
Policy Criticism Affected by Race: Nearly half of respondents (46%) believe Harris’s policy decisions are criticized due to racial bias. Black voters (54%) and Hispanic voters (47%) are more likely to see this bias, while political affiliation again plays a role: 59% of Democrats agree, compared to just 33% of Republicans.
Voter opinions on Kamala Harris’s qualifications and career are similarly divided. While half of voters see Harris as intelligent and accomplished, many also believe her success has been largely influenced by her race and gender.
"Intelligent and Accomplished": Fifty percent of voters agree that Harris is intelligent and has worked hard to achieve her current status. This belief is strongest among Black voters (86%) and AAPI voters (56%), though only 45% of white voters share this view. Politically, 95% of Democrats believe in Harris's qualifications, compared to just 4% of Republicans.
"Benefited from Her Race and Gender": At the same time, 45% of voters believe that Harris’s success is primarily due to her race and gender. This view is most strongly held among Republicans, with 90% agreeing, compared to just 3% of Democrats. A majority of white voters (51%) agree, but only 11% of Black voters see Harris’s identity as the primary driver of her achievements.
Donald Trump has made several controversial claims about Kamala Harris’s race and candidacy. The data shows clear partisan splits in how voters view Trump's controversial statements about Harris's identity, race, and campaign.
Claims that Kamala Harris is a “DEI candidate”: While 44% of voters agree with the claim that Harris has only become the Democratic nominee because of her gender and race, a majority—53%—disagree. Among Republicans, support for the claim is overwhelming (89%), with 48% of independents also in agreement. However, the belief finds little traction among Democrats (only 4% agree). Racially, 49% of white voters and 40% of Hispanic voters support this view, but it is much less common among Black voters (16%) and AAPI voters (29%).
Trump's claim that Kamala Harris “turned Black”: A majority of 56% of respondents disagree with this statement, while 42% agree. This statement is overwhelmingly rejected by 96% of Democrats and 85% of Black voters, yet 85% of Republicans agree. Again, racial divides are clear.
AI-Generated Crowd Claim: Trump’s claim that Harris's rally crowds were fake and generated by AI is met with even more skepticism. Only 35% of voters believe the statement, while 61% disagree. The claim finds more support among Republicans (72%), but even independents (32%) and Democrats (only 2%) show little belief in the claim. Racially, just 38% of white voters agree, while only 10% of Black voters find this statement credible.
As the election draws nearer, many voters are concerned about the potential for increased violence and polarization. These worries cut across racial and political lines, though the intensity and nature of concerns vary significantly depending on party affiliation and demographic factors.
Violence at Political Events: Forty-six percent of voters are "very worried" about violence perpetrated by organized groups. Black voters (50%) and Democrats (55%) express the most concern. Violence on Election Day also looms large, with 37% of voters, including 49% of Democrats, expressing deep worry. Concerns over violence by individual actors are similarly high, especially among Black voters (38%).
Increased Polarization: Polarization is a major concern for many voters, with 42% of respondents "very worried" about increased divisions in the country. Black voters (45%) and Democrats (48%) are particularly anxious about this growing divide, while 36% of Republicans express the same concern. As the country becomes increasingly divided, this issue cuts across racial and political lines.
Election Outcome: The prospect of Donald Trump being re-elected is a major worry for many voters, with 42% "very worried" about this outcome, this fear spikes to 79% among Democrats and 60% of Black voters. On the other hand, 37% of voters are very worried about Kamala Harris becoming president, a concern most notably seen among Republicans (76%). There are also concerns about the possibility of J.D. Vance stepping in as president if Trump cannot finish his term, with 33% of Black voters very worried about this outcome.
Voter sentiments regarding Kamala Harris’s candidacy reflect both excitement about historic change and concern about potential backlash. Opinions are deeply divided, with significant differences across racial and political groups.
Excitement About Harris’s Presidency: Overall, 43% of voters strongly agree that they are excited about this possibility. This sentiment is especially high among Black voters, with 74% strongly agreeing. Among Democrats, 82% are excited about the prospect of electing the first woman president, while only 2% of Republicans share this view. On the other hand, 70% of Republicans strongly disagree with the idea. Additionally, Hispanic (45%) and AAPI (42%) voters show notable support, while a substantial portion of white voters (40%) express excitement, despite 37% strongly disagreeing.
Worry About Backlash: Voter concerns about backlash are also significant, with 50% of respondents expressing some level of worry. Black voters (50%) and AAPI voters (52%) are the most likely to agree that they are concerned about potential backlash. Interestingly, a substantial portion of Republicans (46%) and independents (49%) also express strong agreement with this concern. Among Democrats, 54% agree that backlash could follow Harris's election, indicating cross-party acknowledgment of potential tensions.
This data underscores the deep partisan and racial divide in how voters perceive Kamala Harris's qualifications and career trajectory. For many, especially Democrats and people of color, Harris represents progress—an example of breaking barriers for women and underrepresented communities in the highest levels of government. For others, her candidacy stirs concerns, viewed through the lens of identity politics, with many Republicans seeing her race and gender as unfair advantages rather than achievements grounded in merit. These opposing views highlight the challenges Harris faces as she navigates both racial and gender biases in this election.
As we near November, these perceptions are likely to play a major role not only in how people vote but also in the larger conversation about leadership, fairness, and the future of American politics. The stakes are high, and the differing viewpoints on Harris’s candidacy reflect the broader challenges the country is facing today. How voters reconcile these perspectives could have profound implications—not just for the outcome of this election, but for the trajectory of political discourse and unity in America in the years to come.
Sumati joined Change Research in November 2021, contributing her expertise in data analytics and social advocacy. Her previous experience encompasses roles such as Coordinator for Research and Data Science at Phi Theta Kappa International Honor Society and Director of Academic IT at Tougaloo College, a historically black college in Mississippi. Additionally, she serves as co-chair of the Mississippi Alliance for Change. Shaped by her rich cultural heritage—her father an Indian immigrant who inspired her passion for politics, and her mother a dedicated Black public school educator who fostered her advocacy interests—Sumati brings a uniquely diverse lens to her work. Sumati holds an MBA from Walden University, a Bachelors in Software Engineering from the University of Southern Mississippi, and is a Fall 2021 Arena Academy–digital track graduate. Sumati enjoys life in her hometown in Mississippi, where she lives with her family and a lively trio of pets.