America’s Immigration Debate
Misleading Polls vs. Real Public Opinion
In September, many outlets blasted headlines indicating that a “majority of Americans support mass deportations.” Many members of the anti-MAGA coalition read the stories with despair: could it really be true that most of our fellow citizens want Donald Trump to go forward with what he is proposing?
We’ll cut to the chase here: when presented with a few alternatives, mass deportations are not popular.
When an analyst asks respondents a simple question about a complex topic, they will often get a misleading result. There are a couple of reasons for this:
If you ask a broad, vaguely worded question, respondents won’t all fill in the blanks about the particulars the same way. The question these articles reported on was extremely broad and extremely vague:
“To what extent do you support or oppose the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants?”
It did not mention the number of people Trump wants to deport, which is over 10 million. It did not mention the hundreds of billions of dollars it would cost. Or the economic impact of removing millions of workers who contribute to our economy, the human costs of separating families and fracturing communities, or the collateral damage that might occur among groups like documented immigrants and other people of color. Finally, the question did not mention that the person overseeing such a mass deportation would be Donald Trump.
When people feel more strongly about a problem than they do about any particular solution, they are more inclined to say yes to any solution you put in front of them. We see this in other policy areas, like housing costs, where people have stronger feelings about the problem than any individual policy solution. In these cases, it is crucial to inform respondents about the tradeoffs and ask them to choose between different proposals. When we do this with immigration, we uncover that Americans overwhelmingly prefer a pathway to citizenship over mass deportation.
Americans Strongly Prefer a Pathway to Citizenship over Mass Deportation
In Change Research’s polling, we have asked respondents to choose between different paths forward for the undocumented immigrants in the country. When we do, they express a clear distaste for deportation. Only 28% prefer deportation, while 65% prefer a pathway to citizenship or permanent legal residence. Democrats (by a 92% to 4% margin) and independents (by 57% to 30%) overwhelmingly prefer a pathway to citizenship or permanent legal residence. Even among Republicans, only 55% prefer deportation; 38% prefer a path to citizenship or permanent legal residence.
This data indicates that, regardless of how survey respondents feel about deportation in a vacuum, it is not Americans’ preferred solution.
The same poll about the supposed majority support for mass deportation found that a pathway to citizenship is more popular. Another question in that poll, which received far less media coverage, asked:
Which of the following, if any, do you view as the country’s top priority on immigration?
Only 18% chose “Deporting those who are in the country illegally.” The vast majority of respondents chose one of the other options – either a pathway to citizenship; protecting opportunities for legal immigration; providing asylum to qualifying individuals; or securing the border.
The Majority of Americans Oppose Donald Trump’s Deportation Plan
So, what about Donald Trump’s actual mass deportation proposal?
It turns out that when we ask survey respondents about this specific, extensive, costly plan–rather than asking them to interpret “mass deportation” however they choose–most do not like it.
A majority, 51%, oppose the idea. And while 47% strongly oppose it, outnumbering the 38% who strongly support it.
Together, all of these data points punch significant holes in the headlines claiming that there is a majority in favor of mass deportation. Americans strongly prefer a pathway to citizenship and a number of other approaches to immigration policy.
Ben Greenfield, Lead Analyst, Independent Expenditure
Ben Greenfield was part of the founding team at Change Research in 2017, and since then has conducted hundreds of polls for forward-thinking candidates, organizations and causes. Prior to joining Change Research, he worked in various technical and analytical roles in Silicon Valley, in children's publishing, and earned a Masters in screenwriting from USC's film school. Ben received his BA from Columbia University. He lives in Glendale, California, with his wife and two children.