Are You ready to Rumble?
Harris v Trump - Debate Primer
Here we go again! Debate night is practically here and the vibe is a little different this go-round. ICYMI, Change Research’s recent polling shows VP Harris with a 5-point lead nationally. While there is some evidence the campaign is starting to face headwinds, Harris is clearly entering the debate with a month’s worth of momentum, and also a significant degree of interest—80% of voters say they are “certain” or “likely” to watch tomorrow’s presidential debate. Expectations are sky-high. Ninety-seven percent of Democrats expect Kamala Harris to “win” the debate.
Harris’ objectives for the debate are twofold: solidify new support and blunt attacks on her greatest vulnerabilities.
Objective 1: Solidify new support
Harris’ gains versus Joe Biden’s pre-debate vote numbers come primarily from young voters, non-college-educated women of color, and white college-educated voters.
These groups have some distinctive priorities, although they share concerns about inflation and the high cost of goods. Harris’ messaging on this issue needs to be rock solid. Other important issues include abortion, the cost of housing, gun violence, nominating Supreme Court Justices, climate change, and the Israel/Palestine conflict.
Objective 2: Blunt attacks on Harris’ perceived vulnerabilities
It could be assumed that as the Vice President of an unpopular President, Harris could be burdened with significant baggage from the Biden administration. But is that the case? Not really. Most Democrats believe Harris played a big (30%) or modest (52%) role in the Biden administration. Despite this, most don’t think she’s responsible for its failures (3% said totally responsible, 31% somewhat, 48% not very, and 17% not at all). Independent voters are a bit more divided (18% totally, 44% somewhat, 23% not very, 14% not at all), while Republicans think she carries more responsibility (90% totally/somewhat).
However, Harris shares the same policy challenges as the Biden administration. In a runoff with Donald Trump, Harris tracks most behind her vote on the war in Gaza, the border, inflation, and immigration. Given the policy priorities of her voters, the war in Gaza and inflation need to be areas she addresses during the debate. Her messaging can’t be weak on the border or immigration given how salient it is to Republicans (58% select it as a top 3 issue), but it’s less of an issue for her voters.
On the positive side, Harris is tracking ahead of her vote on abortion, environmental issues, education, fair elections, diplomacy, healthcare, and making appointments to the U.S. Supreme Court. Abortion in particular continues to be extremely salient and Harris should be expected to continue to push this advantage.
While Harris has a lot working to her advantage, the stakes for the debate couldn’t be higher. This is a once-in-a-campaign opportunity to define herself in front of a huge audience. If her 2020 Vice Presidential debate is any predictor, CR expects a good show!
Methodology: n=2626 Registered Voters were surveyed online from Aug 20-27, 2024. Respondents were surveyed using a mixture of Dynamic Online Sampling and text-to-web. The modeled margin of error is +/-2.1%. Please refer to the full methodology statement and toplines.